Tuesday, May 31, 2005

New Caspian Sea pipeline to boost economic prospects in region

yah, how many extra months will this buy us?

good luck!

From My West Texas.com

05/29/2005
New Caspian Sea pipeline to boost economic prospects in region
AP DataStream
Midland Reporter Telegram

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By Aida Sultanova

Associated Press

BAKU, Azerbaijan -- Presidents and oil company executives will inaugurate a 1,100-mile pipeline Wednesday that will carry millions of gallons of crude from the landlocked Caspian to the Mediterranean -- a much-needed alternative to Mideast energy resources.

Analysts say the $3.2 billion, U.S.-backed Baku-Ceyhan pipeline could also help bring stability to the troubled region. The Caspian is thought to contain the world's third-largest oil and gas reserves.

"This global project will completely change the economic situation in Azerbaijan, and in the political sense it will influence the rest of the Caucasus and Central Asia," said Vafa Guluzade, a former foreign affairs adviser to the Azerbaijani government.

Built by a consortium led by BP PLC, the pipeline runs from Azerbaijan through Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Until now, Caspian states sent almost all their oil through Russian pipelines to reach world markets. The new route will neutralize any Russian attempts to use economic levers to bring former Soviet republics back under its wing, Guluzade said.

The pipeline "will carry a huge volume of oil, and Russia is nervous that it is being deprived of big money and also the possibility to dictate its terms to these states," he said.

Azerbaijan will earn taxes and royalties on the oil, while Georgia and Turkey are to profit from transit fees.

The presidents of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Turkey are to be on hand -- along with U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and oil executives -- to watch Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev open the taps Wednesday for the first symbolic drops of oil to enter the pipeline at the Sangachal oil terminal, about 25 miles south of the Azerbaijani capital, Baku.

Aliev and Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev planned to sign an agreement on transporting Kazakh oil through the new pipeline Tuesday.

"We view this as a significant step forward in the energy security of that region," Bodman said Tuesday in Moscow.

The president of the pipeline consortium, Natik Aliev, said it would take up to a month and a half to fill the Azerbaijani section of the pipeline. The Georgian part will be ready after that, and then the Turkish stretch, which Turkish authorities have said should be filled by Aug. 15. It will take approximately 420 million gallons of crude to fill the entire pipeline.

Bodman said deliveries would begin in the fall.

"This is a contribution toward ... an increase supply in oil in the world," he said. "It adds a new supplier of some consequence."

But experts say the new oil will provide only short-term relief to a world that is consuming more crude every year. Oil prices, while down from their recent highs, are still hovering around $49 a barrel.

Four years ago, oil officials spoke of finds that could rival the Middle East's production. But experts now say the Caspian should pump some 168 million to 210 million gallons per day, on a par with Iran.

Eshan Ul-Haq, chief analyst at PVM Oil Associates in Vienna, Austria, said the pipeline will have an impact -- but only for Europe, because initial volumes will be low.

He also said the pipeline's oil could bring prices down for sour-grade crude such as those produced by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and it could mean lower prices for Russian Ural oil. The oil most in demand is light, sweet crude, which most refiners prefer because it is low in sulfur and easy to process.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, hopes the pipeline will raise its profile and swing international support behind Baku in its dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which ethnic Armenian separatists took control of more than a decade ago. The conflict continues to simmer, undermining the region's security.

The pipeline "will bring a certain element of stability in terms of cooperation," with big states pressuring both "Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the Karabakh conflict as quickly as possible," said analyst Rasim Musabekov.

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